Foresight workshop: facing the future of Europe’s climate – EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads

11–12 December 2018, European Commission, Brussels

The future of Europe is uncertain: on top of political and financial troubles come increasing climate risks. The success of implementing the Paris Agreement is up in the air; yet even with a 2°C temperature rise there will be great adaptation needs. Extreme weather events are projected to increase in strength and frequency, and be unequally distributed across the continent. Climate change is expected to further increase migration flows.



Our workshop will explore how foresight methods can be used for designing integrated responses in a changing climate. Participants will assess how Juncker’s 5 futures of Europe and the Climate futures report can be enhanced using additional narratives as a basis for assessing climate actions, and for designing and characterising effective strategies to climate risks.


  • What do these “5 futures” along with climate change mean for CCA and DRR action?
  • Which response actions can be implemented now to increase resilience?
  • How can we use foresight methods to reduce the risks stemming from future extreme weather?

The results of the workshop will contribute to European policy development in DRR and CCA and to the identification of knowledge gaps and associated research priorities.

11 December
12:00 Tea, coffee & light snacks
12:45 Session 1: Setting the scene
14:15 Session 2 – break out groups: Potential EU futures and their relevance for DRR & CCA
What do the 5 future scenarios for Europe mean for climate adaptation and disaster reduction? So far, the differences between the 5 future scenarios have been mostly focused on mitigation. In this session, we will begin to translate these futures for CCA & DRR, focusing on the case studies and the questions:

  • What are challenges for CCA and DRR?
  • What are opportunities for CCA and DRR?

European policy level – multi-hazard:

  • What are challenges/opportunities of CCA and DRR?
15:30 Coffee
16:00–17:00 Session 2 – plenary: Potential EU futures and their relevance for DRR and CCA
12 December
08:30 Tea & coffee
09:00 Session 3: From scenarios to action – how can our findings translate into CCA and DRR policies and practice?
10:45 Coffee
11:15 Session 4: How can the findings be translated into CCA & DRR policies and practice, and implemented? How can foresight support them?
Teaser presentations from DG CLIMA (EU Adaptation Strategy Evaluation) and DG ECHO (EU Civil Protection Mechanism and Risk Assessment) about the ongoing efforts and way forward for policy processes in CCA (Climate adaptation policy) and DRR (civil protection policy).

Break-out groups to discuss:

  • How can we best link the findings of the previous sessions to current CCA and DRR policy processes (e.g. policy brief, follow-up digital or face-to-face events)?
  • Do you think foresight methods might be valuable in your work? How can they be included?
12:45 Reflections and follow up suggestions
  • What are the priority knowledge and research gaps that can be taken up in Horizon Europe, JPIs and national programmes?
  • What do you need to know for your own work?
  • What further understanding is needed?
13:15–13:30 Closing session