Foresight workshop: facing the future of Europe’s climate – EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads

11–12 December 2018, European Commission, Brussels

The future of Europe is uncertain: on top of political and financial troubles come increasing climate risks. The success of implementing the Paris Agreement is up in the air; yet even with a 2°C temperature rise there will be great adaptation needs. Extreme weather events are projected to increase in strength and frequency, and be unequally distributed across the continent. Climate change is expected to further increase migration flows.

In order to enhance resilience in this uncertain world, cooperation between organisations dealing with climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) is crucial. But which direction should the EU take and who must take which actions to avoid and prepare for disruptive weather-related disasters in the coming decades?

The use of FORESIGHT can add value and offer opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to work jointly on solutions. To explore the future of the EU, President Juncker has recently presented 5 futures of Europe, a report which illustrates five possible narratives about Europe´s possible future. This workshop will explore how these scenarios and other foresight methods can be used as a basis for assessing climate risks and for designing and characterising effective responses.

Discussions will tackle the following questions:

  • What do these 5 futures along with climate change mean for CCA and DRR action?
  • How can foresight methods be used to reduce the risks stemming from future extreme weather?
  • What are the strengths and limitations of different foresight methods application?
  • Which response actions can be implemented now to increase resilience?

The results of the workshop will contribute to European policy development in DRR and CCA and to the identification of knowledge gaps and associated research priorities.